Ali Ikhwan
Beijing, China – In a significant milestone for China’s energy transition, coal-fired power plants accounted for 49.7% of the nation’s total electricity output during the first six months of 2026. This marks the first time that coal’s share of the electricity mix has fallen below the 50% threshold, signaling a pivotal moment in the country’s long-standing efforts to decarbonize its energy sector and combat climate change. The shift underscores the accelerating growth of renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind power, which are increasingly challenging coal’s dominance in the world’s largest energy market.
The Shifting Energy Landscape: A Historical Perspective
For decades, coal has been the bedrock of China’s rapid industrialization and economic growth, powering its factories, cities, and homes. The sheer scale of coal consumption made China the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, presenting a formidable challenge in global climate negotiations. However, in recent years, Beijing has embarked on an ambitious path to pivot towards cleaner energy sources, driven by a dual imperative: to improve air quality and public health, and to fulfill its international climate commitments.
This decline in coal’s share is not a sudden development but the culmination of years of policy initiatives and substantial investments in renewable energy technologies. Since the early 2000s, China has systematically ramped up its renewable energy capacity, driven by government targets, technological advancements, and falling costs. The nation has consistently led the world in the installation of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power capacity, transforming its energy landscape at an unprecedented pace.
Greenpeace’s Assessment: A Step in the Right Direction
Gao Yuhe, Beijing-based project lead for Greenpeace East Asia, commented on the significance of this development. "This is another step in coal’s decline in China, and there’s still a way to go," Gao stated. "Solar and wind play a central role in outcompeting and displacing coal. But solar and wind generation is still only at 25%."
Gao emphasized the need for more aggressive renewable energy targets to accelerate the phasing out of coal. "Stronger targets for solar and wind generation will have a knock-on effect to further undercut coal," he explained. "China’s current 2030 target for wind and solar is 30%, but we can easily hit 33% by 2028. Without stronger targets, coal will linger in the interim."
The Greenpeace analysis highlights a crucial point: while the overall decline in coal’s share is encouraging, the current contribution of solar and wind power to the national grid still represents a relatively modest portion. This suggests that a significant portion of the electricity generation that has displaced coal has likely been filled by other fossil fuels or has been met by increased overall demand, necessitating a more concentrated push for renewables.
The Role of Rooftop Solar and Energy Storage
Looking ahead, Gao Yuhe pointed to specific sectors that will be critical in accelerating this transition. "Rooftop solar and energy storage are the key sectors to watch over the next few years," he noted. "In high energy demand provinces on the eastern seaboard, rooftop solar and battery deployment offer local solutions to meet peak electricity demand."
This observation underscores a growing trend towards distributed energy generation and advanced grid management solutions. Rooftop solar installations, in particular, offer a decentralized approach to power generation, reducing reliance on large, centralized power plants and enhancing energy resilience. Coupled with energy storage systems, such as utility-scale batteries or residential battery banks, these technologies can effectively address the intermittency challenges of renewable energy sources, ensuring a stable and reliable power supply, especially during periods of high demand.
The eastern seaboard provinces, characterized by their dense populations, highly industrialized economies, and substantial energy consumption, are prime candidates for such localized solutions. By empowering these regions with greater control over their energy supply, China can further alleviate pressure on its existing grid infrastructure and accelerate the displacement of coal in its most energy-intensive areas.
Supporting Data and Projections
While the provided data covers the first half of 2026, broader trends offer further context. China has consistently set ambitious renewable energy targets. For instance, its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) aimed to increase non-fossil fuel energy consumption to around 20% of the total by 2025. By the end of 2023, China’s installed capacity of renewable energy had already surpassed 1.3 billion kilowatts, representing a significant portion of its total installed power generation capacity.
Specifically, solar PV capacity in China has witnessed explosive growth, reaching over 600 GW by the end of 2023, making it the world’s largest solar power market. Similarly, wind power capacity has also seen substantial expansion, exceeding 400 GW. These figures represent a dramatic increase from just a decade ago, reflecting massive investments and policy support.
The projected trajectory suggests that if current trends continue and are bolstered by strengthened policies, the 30% target for wind and solar by 2030 could indeed be surpassed. Greenpeace’s projection of reaching 33% by 2028, if achievable, would represent an accelerated pace of deployment, further hastening the decline of coal.
Implications for China’s Energy Policy and Global Climate Efforts
The milestone of coal generation falling below 50% has profound implications for China’s domestic energy policy and its role in global climate action. Domestically, it signals a successful, albeit ongoing, transition towards a cleaner energy mix, which is crucial for addressing severe air pollution issues in many urban centers and improving public health outcomes. The economic benefits of this transition are also becoming increasingly apparent, with China emerging as a global leader in renewable energy manufacturing and deployment.
Internationally, this development reinforces China’s commitment to its climate pledges, including its goal to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. As the world’s largest emitter, China’s progress in decarbonizing its energy sector is critical for the global effort to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The continued reduction in coal reliance is a tangible demonstration of this commitment, potentially inspiring other nations to accelerate their own clean energy transitions.
However, as Greenpeace points out, the journey is far from over. Coal will likely remain a significant component of China’s energy mix for some time, especially as the country balances energy security with its decarbonization goals. The challenge lies in managing this transition effectively, ensuring that the decline of coal is not offset by increased reliance on other fossil fuels and that the growth of renewables is sufficient to meet rising energy demand.
Future Outlook and Key Sectors to Watch
The coming years will be crucial in determining the pace and success of China’s energy transition. The emphasis on rooftop solar and energy storage is a strategic move to address the unique challenges of a rapidly evolving energy system. The development of smart grids, advanced battery technologies, and supportive regulatory frameworks will be paramount.
Furthermore, the interplay between national targets and provincial implementation will be key. Provinces with high energy demand and significant renewable potential are likely to be at the forefront of this transition. Their ability to adopt and integrate new technologies, coupled with supportive national policies, will shape the overall trajectory of China’s energy future.
The continued decrease in coal’s share of electricity generation is a positive indicator, but sustained policy commitment, accelerated investment in renewables, and a clear strategy for managing the phase-out of coal will be essential to achieve China’s long-term climate and energy security objectives. The nation’s ability to successfully navigate this complex transition will have far-reaching consequences for both its domestic well-being and the global fight against climate change.
ENDS
For media enquiries please contact:
August Rick, Greenpeace East Asia, Beijing, ([email protected] [email protected])
Greenpeace International Press Desk, ([email protected] [email protected]), +31 20 718 2470 (24 hours)
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