Basiran
The global automotive industry is at a critical juncture, navigating a rapid transition towards zero-emission transportation. However, the pace of this transformation is far from uniform across major car manufacturers. A recent webinar, jointly hosted by Greenpeace Japan and featuring insights from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and Greenpeace East Asia, has shed light on the diverging strategies of leading automakers and their profound implications for the future of mobility, particularly in emerging markets like Southeast Asia. The session, held on July 13, brought together Dale Hall from the ICCT and Erin Eunseo Choi from Greenpeace East Asia to dissect the performance and strategic outlook of the world’s top car companies in the burgeoning battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sector.
The analysis presented underscores a widening chasm between companies that are aggressively embracing electrification and those perceived as lagging, with significant consequences for market share, environmental impact, and long-term competitiveness. The webinar highlighted that while the overarching trend is towards cleaner vehicles, the speed and commitment to this transition vary dramatically, creating distinct winners and losers in the rapidly evolving automotive landscape.
Southeast Asia: A Crucial Arena for Electric Vehicle Adoption
Southeast Asia, a region poised for substantial economic growth and increasing automotive demand, has emerged as a strategic battleground for the future of mobility. Indonesia, in particular, holds significant weight due to its position as one of the region’s largest auto markets and its ambitious drive to become a hub for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing and adoption. By 2025, Indonesia’s BEV market experienced a remarkable surge, securing its place as the third-largest in Southeast Asia, with sales exceeding 103,000 units by the end of the year. This rapid growth presents a critical test for legacy automakers, especially those from Japan, whose historical dominance in the region is now facing unprecedented challenges. Losing ground in this vital market carries substantial long-term repercussions for their global standing.
According to Erin Eunseo Choi of Greenpeace East Asia, the contrasting trajectories of automakers from China, Japan, and South Korea vividly illustrate how divergent strategic approaches yield vastly different outcomes in this dynamic region. The webinar’s findings suggest that companies are either capitalizing on the EV revolution or risking obsolescence by clinging to outdated models.
China’s Electric Surge: A Market Dominance in the Making
Chinese automakers, spearheaded by industry giants like BYD and Geely, have adopted an aggressive and forward-thinking approach to EV sales, demonstrating remarkable agility and ambition. Despite a general contraction in Indonesia’s overall automotive market, Chinese brands have achieved a staggering 153% year-on-year sales increase, effectively tripling their market share to 10%. This meteoric rise signifies a fundamental shift in regional automotive power dynamics.
BYD, in particular, has cemented its position as the undisputed leader in the Indonesian BEV market, capturing more than half of all sales within this segment. The overwhelming success of Chinese EV brands is further underscored by their dominance in the broader Indonesian EV market, accounting for over 90% of all sales in the first half of 2025. This performance indicates a profound shift in consumer preference and a successful market penetration strategy by Chinese manufacturers, who have prioritized and invested heavily in EV technology.
Japan’s Eroding Dominance: A Strategic Hesitation
While Japanese brands have historically enjoyed a strong foothold and consumer loyalty in Southeast Asia, their once-unassailable dominance is now showing signs of significant erosion. Data from the first quarter of 2025 revealed that most Japanese brands, with the notable exception of Toyota, experienced sales declines. This downturn occurred precisely as Chinese competitors were rapidly expanding their market presence.
Choi attributed this weakening grip to a fundamental strategic misstep: Japanese manufacturers remain heavily invested in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and hybrid technologies, rather than prioritizing a clear and accelerated roadmap for battery-electric vehicles in key emerging markets like Southeast Asia. This delay in electrification not only jeopardizes their market share but also exacerbates regional climate inequities. Vehicles sold in Southeast Asia, predominantly ICE-powered, emit significantly higher amounts of carbon dioxide equivalent per unit compared to those sold in markets with high EV adoption rates, such as Europe. Consequently, climate-vulnerable communities in regions like Southeast Asia are disproportionately burdened by the environmental consequences of continued reliance on fossil fuel-powered transportation.
South Korea’s Steep Decline: A Stark Warning Sign
The trajectory of South Korean automakers, particularly Hyundai, serves as a potent warning for the industry. In the rapidly growing BEV segment, Hyundai experienced a dramatic decline in sales. From 7,590 units sold in 2023, the company’s BEV sales plummeted to just 1,828 units in 2025, representing a sharp 75.9% decrease.
While Hyundai has articulated ambitious commitments to phase out combustion engines in developed markets like Europe and the United States, it lacks comparable, concrete timelines for its Southeast Asian operations. This disparity between pledges made in affluent regions and the pace of action in the Global South risks undermining Hyundai’s regional competitiveness and brand image. Choi emphasized that this gap between stated environmental goals and market-specific actions is a critical factor contributing to its declining market performance.
"This is not simply a story of government policy succeeding or failing in isolation," stated Erin Eunseo Choi, Climate and Energy Campaigner at Greenpeace East Asia. "It’s a story about which companies adapted their business models fast enough to meet that policy environment – and which didn’t." This statement encapsulates the core challenge facing the automotive industry: the imperative to adapt business strategies in response to evolving market demands and regulatory landscapes.
The ICCT Global Automaker Rating 2025: A Clear Divide
Adding further weight to these regional observations, Dale Hall presented findings from the ICCT’s comprehensive "Global Automaker Rating 2025." This influential report evaluates the 22 largest global auto manufacturers across six key markets, collectively representing approximately 80% of global new car sales. The rating system provides a granular assessment of automakers’ performance in the transition to zero-emission vehicles.
The ICCT’s analysis revealed a stark division at the global level. Tesla and BYD emerged as the clear leaders, occupying the top tier of the overall ranking. In stark contrast, Japanese manufacturers occupied the bottom five positions in the global ranking, trailing significantly behind their international peers. This global assessment reinforces the regional trends observed in Southeast Asia, highlighting a consistent pattern of leadership among newer EV-focused companies and a struggle for established players to keep pace.
Key Findings from the ICCT Global Automaker Rating 2025:
- Overall Ranking: Tesla and BYD lead, while Japanese manufacturers lag significantly.
- ZEV-Equivalent Sales Share: While most automakers saw an increase in their electric sales share, led by Chinese brands like Geely, Changan, and SAIC, legacy foreign automakers continue to lag. They face a substantial challenge in accelerating sales to meet future climate standards.
- ZEV Investment: Chinese manufacturers are significantly increasing capital investments per vehicle to fuel overseas expansion in markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America. Conversely, legacy automakers in the US, Europe, and Japan have either reduced or maintained flat investment levels, thereby weakening their future market positions.
- ZEV Targets: While leaders such as Changan and BYD have strengthened their EV targets, several major legacy brands have revised their 2030 EV targets downwards, opting for a greater emphasis on hybrids. This retreat poses a significant threat to achieving global climate objectives.
Investment Trends: Fueling Future Growth or Stagnation?
The ICCT report also delved into the critical area of investment in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) technologies. Chinese manufacturers are demonstrating a robust commitment by ramping up capital expenditures per vehicle. This strategic investment is not only aimed at expanding their existing production capacities but also at facilitating their aggressive overseas expansion into high-growth markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America. This proactive approach is designed to secure economies of scale and establish a stronger foothold in the world’s fastest-growing automotive markets.
In contrast, legacy automakers based in the United States, Europe, and Japan have adopted a more cautious stance. Many have either pulled back on their ZEV investment plans or maintained them at flat levels. This divergence in investment strategy carries profound implications for their long-term market positioning and ability to compete effectively in a rapidly electrifying global automotive landscape.
Dale Hall, ICCT Global Program Lead, elaborated on this strategic divergence: "In terms of long-term strategic vision, we see a clear divergence across regional lines. Several of the legacy brands – like Stellantis in Europe, Ford in the US, and Honda in Japan – reduced their mid-term targets amid short-term policy changes and are trying to hedge their investments by adopting more flexible platforms and hybrids, reducing their EV investments. Whereas the market leaders – like BYD, Geely, and SAIC, all from China – are aggressively increasing their EV investments and expanding their production capacity into new markets, again like Southeast Asia and Latin America. That will continue to give them more economies of scale and further footholds in the fastest-growing car markets in the world."
Implications for the Global Automotive Landscape
The findings from the Greenpeace Japan webinar and the ICCT report paint a clear picture of a bifurcated automotive industry. Companies that are decisively investing in and prioritizing battery-electric vehicles are poised for significant growth, particularly in emerging markets. Their agility, commitment to innovation, and willingness to adapt their business models to evolving consumer demands and regulatory frameworks are proving to be decisive factors.
Conversely, legacy automakers that are hedging their bets, maintaining a strong focus on hybrids, or delaying their EV commitments risk being left behind. Their continued reliance on internal combustion engine technology, while potentially offering short-term cost advantages or familiar revenue streams, exposes them to significant long-term risks. These include declining market share in crucial growth regions, increasing regulatory pressure, and a growing disconnect with environmentally conscious consumers.
The differential pace of electrification also has critical environmental implications. As highlighted by Choi, the continued prevalence of high-emission vehicles in regions like Southeast Asia will perpetuate climate inequities, placing a greater burden on climate-vulnerable populations. The transition to zero-emission vehicles is not merely an economic imperative but also a critical component of global climate action.
The automotive industry’s journey towards a zero-emission future is well underway, but the path forward is not uniform. The strategic decisions made today by automakers regarding investment, product development, and market focus will shape the industry for decades to come. The clear winners appear to be those who have embraced electrification with conviction, while those who hesitate or opt for incremental change risk obsolescence in the face of a rapidly accelerating global transition. The evidence suggests that the companies most committed to a fully electric future are not only securing their market share but also playing a more responsible role in addressing the climate crisis.
Iffa Jayyana
Ali Ikhwan
