Evan Lee Salim
A Chinese submarine successfully test-fired a "strategic" missile, carrying a dummy warhead, into the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean on Monday, Beijing officially confirmed. This significant demonstration of military capability immediately triggered sharp condemnation from several nations in the region, highlighting escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns over nuclear proliferation. The launch occurred concurrently with a critical defence treaty signing between Australia and Fiji, underscoring the intensified competition for influence in the strategically vital South Pacific.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) announced that the nuclear submarine launched a "strategic missile carrying a training simulation warhead" at 12:01 pm (0401 GMT). According to a statement released via WeChat by spokesperson Wang Xuemeng, the missile "accurately land(ed) in the designated sea area," asserting that the test was a "routine arrangement of China’s annual military training" and that "relevant countries were informed in advance." However, this claim of adequate prior notification was swiftly challenged by New Zealand, whose foreign minister stated that his country was informed "within hours" of the launch, suggesting a potentially insufficient window for regional partners to process and react to such a significant event.
Escalating Military Assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific
This latest test is not an isolated incident but rather a continuation of China’s accelerated military modernization and a pattern of increased assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. It comes a mere two years after China’s elite Rocket Force executed a groundbreaking intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch into the sea near French Polynesia. That 2024 event marked China’s first ICBM launch over international waters in over four decades, signalling a clear shift in Beijing’s willingness to openly demonstrate its long-range strike capabilities. Analysts at the time identified the missile as likely an advanced Dong Feng-31, a weapon capable of delivering a thermonuclear warhead, which controversially splashed down in an area designated as a nuclear-free zone under an international treaty.
The missile showcased in the recent submarine launch is widely believed to be the JL-3 (Julang-3), China’s third-generation intercontinental-range submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The JL-3, seen in public during a military parade in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square on September 3, 2025, marking the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan and the end of World War II, represents a critical component of China’s nuclear triad. This triad, comprising land-based ICBMs, strategic bombers, and SLBMs, is designed to ensure a credible second-strike capability, enhancing China’s deterrence posture. The JL-3 is understood to have an estimated range of over 10,000 kilometres, making it capable of reaching targets across the continental United States from patrol areas in the Western Pacific, thereby significantly bolstering the operational reach and survivability of China’s nuclear deterrent. It is typically deployed on the Type 094 (Jin-class) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), which are increasingly venturing into deeper international waters.
Simultaneous Geopolitical Manoeuvres
The timing of Monday’s missile test was conspicuously intertwined with two other significant geopolitical developments, underscoring China’s complex strategic calculus.
Firstly, on the very same day, Australia and Fiji solidified their defence cooperation by signing a major defence treaty, formally known as the Vuvale Agreement. This pact is a cornerstone of Canberra’s concerted efforts to counter and outmanoeuvre Beijing’s rapidly expanding influence in the South Pacific. The Vuvale Agreement deepens military-to-military ties, enhances information sharing, and facilitates joint training exercises, aiming to build resilience and security capacity among Pacific island nations. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong were in Suva, Fiji, to formalize the agreement with their Fijian counterparts, Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka and Foreign Minister Sakiasi Raisevu Ditoka. This treaty is part of a broader Australian and Western strategy to provide an alternative to China’s growing economic and security presence, which has seen Beijing invest heavily in infrastructure projects, offer substantial loans, and pursue security pacts with island nations.
Secondly, the missile test coincided with the commencement of China and Russia’s annual joint naval exercises, the "Joint Sea" series, off the coast of Qingdao, a major military port and seaside resort in eastern China. State news agency Xinhua reported that the two sides would engage in "harbour-based planning" initially, including "exercises in command and tactical coordination." Subsequently, participating warships would "proceed to the sea near Qingdao to conduct drills in areas such as joint reconnaissance, air and missile defence, as well as training in the actual use of weapons." These exercises are a clear demonstration of the deepening strategic alignment between Beijing and Moscow, projecting a united front against perceived Western hegemony and further complicating regional security dynamics. The "Joint Sea" drills have been a regular feature since 2012, growing in scale and complexity, often involving anti-submarine warfare, air defense, and maritime interdiction operations.
International Outcry and Regional Instability
The international reaction to China’s submarine missile test was swift and largely condemnatory, underscoring widespread unease over Beijing’s military expansion and its implications for regional stability.
New Zealand’s Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, issued one of the strongest rebukes. "The Pacific is an Ocean of Peace and we are deeply concerned by China’s testing of nuclear-capable weapons into the South Pacific," Peters stated, adding unequivocally that the launch "is not consistent with regional stability." He further highlighted that New Zealand was only informed "within hours" of the test, and expressed concern that "this now seems to be a recurring pattern by China," reflecting a growing regional apprehension about China’s transparency and intent. This sentiment resonates deeply in a region historically scarred by extensive nuclear testing conducted by colonial powers in the decades following World War II, which caused devastating environmental and health consequences for indigenous populations.
Australia, a key regional power and staunch US ally, echoed these concerns, describing the launch as "destabilising." Australian officials, already engaged in diplomatic efforts to bolster regional alliances, view such displays of military might as counterproductive to maintaining a peaceful and secure Indo-Pacific. The Australian government has repeatedly called for greater transparency from Beijing regarding its military build-up.
Japan also registered its strong disapproval, stating it had "strongly called for a rethink" of the test and "expressed serious concerns over China’s increasing military activity." Tokyo’s concerns are particularly acute given its geographical proximity to China and ongoing territorial disputes in the East China Sea. Japan has recently embarked on its own significant defence spending increase, citing China’s growing military capabilities and North Korea’s missile programs as primary drivers.
While the United States did not immediately issue a specific statement regarding this particular test, it is highly probable that Washington is closely monitoring the situation. The US Indo-Pacific Command consistently tracks China’s military activities, and such tests are invariably viewed through the lens of strategic competition and regional deterrence. US officials have frequently expressed concerns about China’s lack of transparency in its nuclear and missile programs, advocating for greater dialogue and risk reduction measures.
Prior to the official announcement, both Papua New Guinea’s foreign minister and a New Zealand government source had confirmed to AFP that China was preparing for such a test. Papua New Guinea Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko stated, "Yes, China has briefed me. I was personally called by the Chinese ambassador," indicating direct, albeit short-notice, communication from Beijing to some regional partners.
China’s Nuclear Expansion and Global Implications
Beijing’s stepped-up nuclear development and boosted defence spending are central to these regional anxieties. According to the Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military power, China possessed more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023. The report further projected that China is likely to possess more than 1,000 warheads by 2030, a rapid increase that challenges global nuclear stability and raises questions about China’s "no-first-use" nuclear doctrine. This expansion includes not only the number of warheads but also the sophistication and diversity of its delivery systems, including advanced ICBMs, SLBMs, and a burgeoning fleet of strategic bombers.
China’s defence budget has seen consistent double-digit growth for decades, reflecting its ambition to build a world-class military capable of projecting power far beyond its immediate periphery. In 2024, China announced a 7.2% increase in its defence budget, reaching 1.67 trillion yuan (approximately $231 billion), though many international analysts believe the actual spending is significantly higher. This investment supports extensive naval expansion, including aircraft carriers and advanced destroyers, as well as development in cyber warfare, space capabilities, and hypersonic weaponry.
The New Zealand Defence Force, in internal documents obtained by AFP last month, privately warned that Beijing’s naval forays and ballistic missile tests would become a "persistent" feature of the Pacific. This assessment underscores the long-term strategic shift underway, where the Pacific Ocean is increasingly becoming a theatre of great power competition rather than remaining the "Ocean of Peace" that regional leaders aspire to.
Broader Impact and Implications
The implications of China’s recent submarine missile test are multifaceted, touching upon regional security, global nuclear stability, and geopolitical competition.
Regional Security and Arms Race: The test exacerbates regional security concerns, potentially fueling an arms race as neighbouring countries, particularly Australia and Japan, enhance their own defence capabilities and forge stronger alliances to counterbalance China’s growing military might. The perception of an increasingly assertive and less transparent China could lead to miscalculations and heighten the risk of conflict.
Nuclear Deterrence and Non-Proliferation: China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and improved delivery systems, especially its SLBM capabilities, are transforming the dynamics of nuclear deterrence in Asia and globally. While China maintains a stated "no-first-use" policy, the sheer growth in its arsenal raises questions about the long-term viability of this doctrine and places additional pressure on international non-proliferation efforts. The deployment of advanced SLBMs provides China with a survivable second-strike capability, enhancing its strategic deterrent against potential adversaries.
Geopolitical Competition in the Pacific: The timing of the test, coinciding with the Australia-Fiji defence treaty, underscores the intensifying geopolitical competition for influence in the Pacific. China’s strategy involves a combination of economic aid, infrastructure development, and security overtures, often aimed at chipping away at traditional Western alliances. The missile test serves as a powerful reminder of China’s military reach, intended to demonstrate its capacity to project power and protect its interests across the vast oceanic expanse.
Transparency and International Norms: China’s claim of "routine training" and "prior notification," juxtaposed with New Zealand’s "within hours" revelation, highlights a persistent issue regarding transparency in military exercises. A lack of timely and detailed information about such sensitive tests erodes trust, increases regional anxieties, and complicates efforts to establish common norms for responsible military conduct in international waters.
In conclusion, China’s submarine-launched strategic missile test in the Pacific Ocean marks a significant moment in the ongoing evolution of global power dynamics. It underscores Beijing’s unwavering commitment to modernizing its military and expanding its strategic reach, while simultaneously generating deep concern and condemnation from regional actors. The confluence of this test with critical diplomatic and military alignments in the Indo-Pacific signals a period of heightened competition, demanding careful diplomacy and sustained efforts to maintain regional stability and prevent escalation. The reverberations of this single event will undoubtedly shape security dialogues and strategic calculations for years to come.
Azzam Bilal Chamdy
