Azzam Bilal Chamdy
Beijing, China – China and Russia commenced their second joint computer-assisted anti-missile drill on Monday, an exercise strategically positioned by experts as a deterrent against potential missile threats, particularly in the wake of escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The week-long simulation, unfolding in Beijing, is set to conclude on Saturday, according to an official statement released by China’s Defense Ministry. This latest collaborative effort underscores a deepening military partnership between the two Eurasian powers, aimed at bolstering mutual strategic trust and enhancing their collective capabilities in missile defense.
The Aerospace Security-2017 Exercise and its Strategic Underpinnings
The drill, unofficially referred to as "Aerospace Security-2017" in some circles, though the official designation from the Ministry of Defense simply refers to it as the "second joint computer-assisted anti-missile drill," represents a practical manifestation of the "important consensus" reached by the leaders of both nations. This consensus, focused on intensifying Sino-Russian anti-missile cooperation, is viewed as a crucial step in jointly addressing regional ballistic and cruise missile threats. The Defense Ministry emphasized that the exercise does not target any third party, a common diplomatic assertion in such military endeavors. However, the timing and stated objectives inherently carry significant geopolitical weight.
The core objective of the exercise, as articulated by Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesman for China’s Defense Ministry, during a news briefing in November, is to "jointly train for anti-missile combat planning and preparation, launch command and firing coordination." This focus on simulated command-and-control functions, rather than live-fire drills, allows for the refinement of interoperability, communication protocols, and strategic decision-making processes between the two militaries without overtly escalating regional anxieties through visible weapon deployments. The computer-assisted nature enables a comprehensive simulation of complex missile attack scenarios, allowing staff officers to practice threat assessment, target assignment, and the coordination of defensive responses across vast distances.
Historical Context of Sino-Russian Military Cooperation
The current drill is not an isolated event but rather a continuation of a steadily deepening military and strategic partnership between China and Russia. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, bilateral relations initially focused on economic cooperation and arms sales, with Russia becoming a primary supplier of advanced military hardware to China. Over the past two decades, this relationship has matured into a broader strategic alignment, characterized by increasing political coordination on global issues and a significant uptick in joint military exercises.
The first computer-assisted anti-missile drill, known as "Aerospace Security-2016," took place in May 2016 at the Central Research Institute of the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces in Moscow. That exercise similarly focused on simulating missile defense scenarios and refining joint operational procedures. These anti-missile drills complement a wider array of joint military exercises, such as the annual "Vostok" and "Peace Mission" series, which encompass land, air, and naval forces, demonstrating a growing level of interoperability and strategic trust between the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Russian Armed Forces.
The impetus for this deepening cooperation stems from several shared strategic concerns. Both nations perceive the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) eastward, particularly Russia, and the growing presence of U.S. military alliances and missile defense systems in Asia, particularly China, as direct threats to their respective security interests and regional strategic balance. The development of global anti-missile systems, especially those deployed by the United States, is a consistent point of contention for both Beijing and Moscow. They argue that such systems, ostensibly designed for defensive purposes, can disrupt regional stability by encouraging an arms race and creating a false sense of security that might embolden aggressive actions. Consequently, China and Russia have consistently voiced their opposition to the development and deployment of such systems, advocating instead for a more multilateral approach to global security challenges.
Escalating Tensions on the Korean Peninsula
The immediate backdrop to this joint drill is the perilous escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula. In November, just weeks before the commencement of "Aerospace Security-2017," the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test to date, launching the Hwasong-15. DPRK state media subsequently reported that this new missile was capable of carrying a "super-heavy large-size warhead" and could "strike the whole mainland of the U.S." This launch followed a series of provocative missile tests throughout 2017, including tests of intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) that flew over Japan, and a hydrogen bomb test in September, which generated a seismic event of considerable magnitude.
These actions by Pyongyang have drawn widespread international condemnation and led to successive rounds of stringent United Nations Security Council sanctions. The United States, South Korea, and Japan have responded by intensifying their military readiness, conducting joint exercises, and bolstering their missile defense capabilities. Notably, the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system by the United States in South Korea in 2017 sparked fierce opposition from both China and Russia. Beijing views the THAAD system’s powerful X-band radar as capable of peering deep into Chinese territory, compromising its strategic deterrence capabilities and upsetting the regional strategic balance. Russia shares similar concerns about the expansion of U.S. missile defense capabilities in its near abroad.
Therefore, the timing of the China-Russia anti-missile drill is not coincidental. It sends a clear signal that both nations are prepared to enhance their cooperative defensive posture in response to what they perceive as a rapidly deteriorating security environment in Northeast Asia, driven by both DPRK’s advancements and the subsequent reactions from the U.S. and its allies.
Official Responses and Expert Analysis
China’s Defense Ministry’s statement underscored the drill’s significance in "jointly safeguarding Chinese and Russian security interests and regional strategic balance." This phrasing encapsulates the broader geopolitical aims of the exercise, which extend beyond merely countering DPRK’s capabilities to asserting a shared vision for regional security architecture that challenges U.S. dominance.
Professor Su Hao of the China Foreign Affairs Academy reiterated the critical importance for China and Russia to bolster strategic trust and cooperate in anti-missile defense. He highlighted that such collaboration is essential "to protect their nations from potential threats." This academic perspective aligns with the official narrative, emphasizing the defensive and precautionary nature of the drill. For China, cooperation with Russia offers a strategic hedge against potential threats from the U.S. and its allies, while for Russia, it reinforces its geopolitical standing as a major player in Asian security.
While no direct statements from Russian officials were immediately available in the original report, Russia’s consistent foreign policy stance and military doctrine strongly align with the objectives outlined by China. Russian officials have historically emphasized the need for a multipolar world order and have consistently criticized U.S. unilateralism and the development of global missile defense systems as destabilizing factors. Therefore, it is highly probable that Russian military and political leaders would echo China’s sentiments regarding the necessity of strengthening strategic trust, improving anti-missile cooperation, and jointly safeguarding their security interests and regional strategic balance against perceived external threats.
Reactions from other regional and global players, though not explicitly stated in the source, can be logically inferred. The United States, South Korea, and Japan are likely to view the drill with a degree of concern, perceiving it as a move to counter their alliances and missile defense efforts. Despite the assertion that the drill "does not target any third party," the geopolitical context suggests it carries a strong implicit message directed at nations involved in the current Korean Peninsula standoff and those deploying advanced missile defense systems in the region. Such drills, even if purely simulated, can contribute to a sense of an intensifying arms race and heightened strategic competition, potentially complicating diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions.
Broader Implications and Strategic Significance
The "Aerospace Security-2017" exercise carries significant implications for regional and global security dynamics. Firstly, it solidifies the strategic alignment between China and Russia, moving beyond mere economic partnership to robust military cooperation in a highly sensitive domain. This collaboration acts as a counterweight to the U.S.-led alliance system in Asia, particularly against the backdrop of increased U.S. military presence and missile defense deployments. It sends a clear message that Beijing and Moscow are committed to creating an alternative security framework that reflects their shared interests.
Secondly, the drill enhances the deterrence capabilities of both nations. By demonstrating a coordinated and sophisticated approach to missile defense, China and Russia aim to complicate any potential adversary’s calculus regarding missile strikes. While primarily defensive in nature, the ability to effectively counter ballistic and cruise missile threats strengthens their overall strategic posture and could potentially deter aggressive actions from any quarter.
Thirdly, the focus on computer-assisted simulation allows for the development of interoperability and common doctrines without the immediate political and environmental costs of live-fire exercises. This virtual training environment facilitates the exchange of technical knowledge, operational procedures, and command philosophies, paving the way for deeper integration of their respective missile defense systems in the future. Such interoperability is crucial for effective joint responses to complex, multi-vector missile attacks.
Finally, the exercise underscores the ongoing geopolitical competition over missile defense. China and Russia’s opposition to global anti-missile systems, particularly those of the U.S., is a consistent theme in their strategic dialogues. This drill serves as a practical demonstration of their commitment to developing their own capabilities and coordinating their responses to what they perceive as destabilizing missile defense architectures. It signifies their intent to actively shape the global strategic balance rather than merely reacting to external developments.
In conclusion, the second joint computer-assisted anti-missile drill between China and Russia is a multifaceted event with profound implications. While framed as a defensive measure to enhance strategic trust and counter regional missile threats, particularly those emanating from the Korean Peninsula, it simultaneously serves as a powerful statement of a deepening Sino-Russian strategic partnership. This collaboration is designed to collectively safeguard their security interests, challenge the prevailing security architecture, and reinforce their shared vision for a more multipolar global order, thereby influencing the intricate dynamics of security in Northeast Asia and beyond.
Nila Kartika Wati
Asep Darmawan
