Nila Kartika Wati
The automotive industry’s transition to zero-emission transportation is gaining significant momentum, yet the pace at which global car manufacturers are embracing battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) varies dramatically, creating a landscape of clear leaders and lagging contenders. This divergence was a central theme during a recent webinar hosted by Greenpeace Japan, which convened experts to dissect the electrification strategies of the world’s leading automakers.
On July 13, Greenpeace Japan’s second webinar on green mobility and climate brought together Dale Hall, a key figure from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), and Erin Eunseo Choi, an advocate from Greenpeace East Asia. Their discussion focused on a comprehensive analysis of how major automotive players are navigating the critical shift to BEVs, with a particular emphasis on emerging markets like Southeast Asia. The insights presented underscored a growing chasm between companies that are aggressively investing in and marketing electric vehicles and those that appear to be hedging their bets or delaying decisive action.
Southeast Asia: A Crucial Battleground for Electric Mobility
Southeast Asia is increasingly recognized as a pivotal region for the future of mobility, with Indonesia standing out as a particularly significant market. As one of the region’s largest auto markets and a nation actively positioning itself as an electric vehicle (EV) hub, Indonesia’s trajectory offers a compelling case study of the broader trends. By 2025, Indonesia’s BEV market experienced remarkable growth, securing its position as the third-largest BEV market in Southeast Asia. By the close of that year, sales surpassed 103,000 units, a testament to the region’s burgeoning demand for cleaner transportation options. For established automakers, particularly those with deep roots in Japan, failing to secure a strong foothold in Southeast Asia carries substantial long-term consequences, potentially impacting their global market share and influence for decades to come.
According to Choi, the strategies employed by automakers from China, Japan, and South Korea in this dynamic region are yielding vastly different outcomes. The competitive landscape is being reshaped by distinct approaches to electrification, with Chinese manufacturers demonstrating a rapid ascent, Japanese brands facing an erosion of their traditional dominance, and South Korean companies experiencing a notable decline in their BEV market share.
China’s Electrifying Surge: Dominance in Emerging Markets
Chinese automakers, spearheaded by industry giants BYD and Geely, have embarked on an aggressive expansion of their electric vehicle sales, capturing significant market share in key emerging economies. Even amidst a contraction in Indonesia’s overall automotive market, Chinese brands achieved an astonishing 153% year-on-year sales increase. This remarkable surge nearly tripled their market share, propelling them to capture 10% of the Indonesian auto market.
BYD, in particular, has emerged as the undisputed leader in the Indonesian BEV segment, securing more than half of the market’s sales. The company’s rapid expansion and compelling product offerings have positioned it as a formidable force. The broader trend is evident across the board, with Chinese EV brands collectively accounting for over 90% of Indonesia’s EV sales in the first half of 2025. This dominance signifies a significant shift in the automotive power balance, challenging the long-held supremacy of traditional manufacturers in developing markets.
The success of Chinese automakers can be attributed to several factors, including substantial government support, early and consistent investment in EV technology and manufacturing, and a keen understanding of the price sensitivities and preferences of consumers in emerging markets. Their ability to rapidly scale production and introduce competitive models has allowed them to outmaneuver rivals who have been slower to adapt.
Japan’s Evolving Position: A Fading Hegemony
While Japanese automotive brands continue to benefit from a legacy of quality and consumer trust, their historically dominant position in Southeast Asia is demonstrably eroding. In the first quarter of 2025, a stark reality emerged: most Japanese brands, with the notable exception of Toyota, recorded sales declines in the region. This downturn occurred even as their Chinese competitors were experiencing explosive growth.
The root of this challenge lies in strategic prioritization, according to Choi. Japanese manufacturers have largely remained heavily focused on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and hybrid technologies. While hybrids offer a transitional step, they are not a comprehensive solution for achieving true zero-emission mobility. This strategic emphasis has led to a delay in prioritizing the rollout of dedicated BEVs in crucial markets like Southeast Asia, where consumer demand for electric alternatives is growing.
This lag in electrification not only impacts market share but also exacerbates regional climate inequities. Vehicles powered by combustion engines, particularly those sold in Southeast Asia, emit significantly higher levels of carbon dioxide equivalent per vehicle compared to their counterparts in markets with higher BEV adoption rates, such as Europe. Consequently, communities in climate-vulnerable regions are disproportionately burdened by the environmental consequences of continued reliance on fossil fuel-powered transportation.
The challenge for Japanese automakers is multifaceted. Their established supply chains and manufacturing infrastructure are heavily geared towards ICE technology. Shifting this immense industrial apparatus requires substantial investment, retraining of the workforce, and a fundamental reorientation of research and development efforts. Furthermore, the perception among some consumers and environmental groups is that certain Japanese manufacturers have been hesitant to fully commit to BEVs, opting instead for a more gradual approach that prioritizes hybrids.
South Korea’s Warning Sign: Stalled Progress in a Shifting Landscape
The trajectory of South Korean automakers, particularly Hyundai, serves as a potent warning for the industry. In the BEV segment, Hyundai experienced a precipitous decline in sales within the Indonesian market. From a robust 7,590 units sold in 2023, sales plummeted to just 1,828 units in 2025, representing a staggering 75.9% drop.
While Hyundai has publicly articulated clear commitments to phasing out combustion engines in developed markets like Europe and the United States, a similar urgency and defined timeline are conspicuously absent for the Southeast Asian region. This disparity between pledges made for mature markets and the pace of action in the Global South risks undermining Hyundai’s regional competitiveness and its brand image.
Choi emphasized this critical point: "This is not simply a story of government policy succeeding or failing in isolation. It’s a story about which companies adapted their business models fast enough to meet that policy environment – and which didn’t." This sentiment encapsulates the core issue: companies that are agile and responsive to evolving market demands and regulatory landscapes are poised for success, while those that are resistant to change or too slow to adapt face significant challenges.
The implications of this divergence extend beyond market share. For countries like Indonesia, which are actively seeking to become EV hubs, the commitment and investment from major automakers are crucial for economic development, job creation, and achieving national climate goals. A lack of robust EV offerings from key players can hinder these ambitions and reinforce a reliance on fossil fuel-dependent transportation.
The ICCT Global Automaker Rating 2025: A Definitive Assessment
Providing a comprehensive, data-driven perspective on this global transition, Dale Hall presented the findings of the ICCT’s "Global Automaker Rating 2025." This extensive report evaluates the 22 largest global auto manufacturers across six key markets, representing approximately 80% of worldwide new car sales. The rating system provides a clear benchmark for assessing automakers’ commitment to and progress in electrification.
Overall Ranking: Leaders Emerge, Laggards Lag Behind
The ICCT’s overall ranking placed Tesla and BYD at the forefront, occupying the top tier of leaders in the global transition to zero-emission vehicles. These companies have consistently demonstrated a strong commitment to BEV development, production, and sales. In stark contrast, the report identified Japanese manufacturers as occupying the bottom five spots overall, signifying a significant lag behind their global peers in embracing and driving the EV revolution. This finding reinforces the observations made regarding the Indonesian market and highlights a systemic challenge within the Japanese automotive sector.
Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV)-Equivalent Sales Share: A Growing Divide
The analysis of ZEV-equivalent sales share revealed that nearly all evaluated automakers have increased their proportion of electric vehicle sales. Leading this charge are Chinese brands such as Geely, Changan, and SAIC, which have aggressively pushed their EV offerings into the market. However, legacy foreign automakers continue to lag considerably behind. To meet ambitious future climate standards and remain competitive, these companies will need to dramatically accelerate their BEV sales volumes. The current pace suggests a significant gap that will be challenging to close without a more substantial shift in strategy and investment.
ZEV Investment: A Tale of Two Strategies
Crucially, the ICCT report delved into ZEV investment patterns. Chinese manufacturers are significantly ramping up their capital expenditures per vehicle, with a clear strategy to expand their production capacity and market reach into burgeoning regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America. This proactive investment signals a long-term vision and a commitment to capturing future growth markets. Conversely, legacy automakers in the United States, Europe, and Japan have, in many cases, pulled back on or maintained flat investment levels in ZEVs. This cautious approach, potentially influenced by short-term market fluctuations or a desire to protect existing ICE assets, is weakening their future market position and their ability to compete with more aggressive players.
ZEV Targets: Ambitions Revised, Retreats Observed
The ICCT’s assessment of ZEV targets revealed a concerning trend. While market leaders like Changan and BYD have strengthened their electrification goals, several major legacy brands have recently rolled back or lowered their 2030 EV targets. This strategic pivot, often towards a greater emphasis on hybrid vehicles, represents a retreat from full electrification and poses a significant threat to global climate targets. Such adjustments signal a lack of confidence or commitment to achieving a fully zero-emission future within the established timelines, potentially jeopardizing progress towards international climate agreements.
Dale Hall, Global Program Lead at the ICCT, provided critical analysis on these diverging investment and target strategies: "In terms of long-term strategic vision, we see a clear divergence across regional lines. Several of the legacy brands – like Stellantis in Europe, Ford in the US, and Honda in Japan – reduced their mid-term targets amid short-term policy changes and are trying to hedge their investments by adopting more flexible platforms and hybrids, reducing their EV investments. Whereas the market leaders – like BYD, Geely, and SAIC, all from China – are aggressively increasing their EV investments and expanding their production capacity into new markets, again like Southeast Asia and Latin America. That will continue to give them more economies of scale and further footholds in the fastest-growing car markets in the world."
Implications for the Global Automotive Landscape
The insights from the Greenpeace Japan webinar and the ICCT’s Global Automaker Rating 2025 paint a clear picture of a global automotive industry at a critical juncture. The transition to electric mobility is not merely a technological shift but a fundamental reshaping of the industry’s economic and strategic landscape.
Companies that are demonstrating agility, robust investment, and a clear long-term vision for electrification are poised to thrive. This includes pioneers like Tesla and the rapidly ascending Chinese manufacturers who are aggressively expanding their global footprint. Their commitment to BEVs is not only capturing market share in developing economies but also setting new benchmarks for innovation and affordability.
Conversely, automakers that are hesitant to fully commit to BEVs, or those whose strategies remain heavily reliant on internal combustion engines and hybrids, face increasing risks. Their dominance in traditional markets is being challenged, and their ability to compete in the rapidly growing EV segment is diminishing. The erosion of market share in regions like Southeast Asia, coupled with the rollback of ambitious EV targets, suggests a potential for significant disruption and loss of competitive advantage for these legacy players.
The environmental implications are equally profound. The pace of electrification directly impacts the world’s ability to meet climate targets. A slower transition by major automakers means prolonged reliance on fossil fuel-powered vehicles, exacerbating air pollution and contributing to climate change. This burden often falls disproportionately on vulnerable populations in developing nations, creating a global equity issue that the automotive industry has a moral and strategic imperative to address.
As the world moves decisively towards a zero-emission transportation future, the strategic choices made by automotive manufacturers today will determine their success and their contribution to a sustainable planet in the decades to come. The current trends suggest a significant realignment of power within the industry, with new leaders emerging and established giants facing the urgent need to adapt or risk being left behind.
Nana Wu
Azzam Bilal Chamdy
