Asro
SEOUL – South Korea’s aspiration to achieve a monumental 220 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity by 2040 is facing a significant hurdle. A new report suggests that incorporating the substantial power demands of upcoming industrial mega-projects into the nation’s 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand could render the achievement of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) carbon reduction goals virtually impossible. The findings, released by international environmental organization Greenpeace East Asia and the civil society network Korea Beyond Fossil Fuels (KBF), highlight a critical juncture for the country’s energy transition.
The comprehensive study, titled Alternative Scenarios for Power Sector Decarbonization, was conducted by the energy research institute PLANIT. Leveraging the sophisticated open-source Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA) model, the research team meticulously analyzed various power sector pathways. Their simulations were anchored to the existing 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, with a focus on optimizing grid operations and minimizing buildout costs to accurately assess the resulting emissions impacts.
Key Findings: A Stark Emissions Outlook
The analysis paints a concerning picture: even with a complete phase-out of coal-fired power plants, the integration of projected power demands from industrial mega-projects will cause power sector emissions to vastly exceed the NDC target cap of 56 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e). The primary driver for this projected overshoot is a significant expansion in gas power generation, which is being relied upon to fill the void left by retiring coal facilities and to meet the burgeoning energy needs of these new industrial ventures.
The PLANIT study modeled two distinct scenarios for increased demand, reflecting projections from the 12th Basic Plan Committee’s August announcement. This announcement forecast a demand increase of between 26.6 and 26.8 GW over prior baselines. The report specifically examined the impact of adding 20 GW and 30 GW of demand from these mega-projects.
Table: Comparative Power Sector Scenarios – Gas, Renewables, and Emissions
| Scenario | Gas Capacity | Gas Generation | Renewable Capacity | Renewable Generation | Emissions (vs. NDC Target) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal Phaseout (No mega demand, 15% gas cap) | 33 GW | 44 TWh | 249 GW | 359 TWh | 37 MtCO2e (two-thirds of target) |
| + 20 GW Mega Demand | 33 GW | 208 TWh (↑164 TWh) | 280 GW | 363 TWh (↑4 TWh) | 84 MtCO2e (1.5x target) |
| + 30 GW Mega Demand | 33 GW | 224 TWh (↑180 TWh) | 344 GW | 441 TWh (↑82 TWh) | 90 MtCO2e (1.6x target) |
Note: Increases are relative to the "Coal Phaseout" scenario.
The data reveals a dramatic surge in gas power generation under the mega-project demand scenarios. In the scenario incorporating a 30 GW demand increase, gas power generation is projected to skyrocket nearly fivefold, from 44 TWh in the baseline coal phaseout scenario to a staggering 224 TWh. This represents an increase of 180 TWh. Consequently, greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to reach approximately 90 MtCO2e, which is 1.6 times the nation’s enhanced NDC target. This dramatic rise is attributed, in part, to the necessity of lifting the 15% capacity factor restriction on gas power plants to meet the intense demand.
Even under a more modest 20 GW additional demand scenario, the impact is substantial. Gas generation still increases by 4.7 times to 208 TWh, leading to emissions of 84 MtCO2e, or 1.5 times the NDC target. These figures underscore the significant reliance on gas power to bridge the energy gap created by the retirement of coal and the expansion of industrial activities.
Expert Analysis: A Call for Policy Reform
Jahyeon Kim, Energy Transition Team Lead at PLANIT, emphasized the critical implications of the study’s findings. "The finding that additional mega-project demand is met primarily by gas power demonstrates that expanding renewables alone won’t deliver real carbon reductions without strict regulations on gas generation," Kim stated. "To prevent the phase-out of aging coal plants from simply leading to reliance on gas—another fossil fuel—a decisive policy shift is urgently required."
Kim proposed specific policy interventions, including halting the construction of new gas-fired power plants and capping gas utilization rates. He argued that such measures would redefine gas power strictly as a peaking resource, rather than a cornerstone of baseload power. This would necessitate a more robust and accelerated deployment of renewable energy sources and energy storage systems to meet the growing demand reliably and sustainably.
Context: South Korea’s Energy Landscape and NDC Commitments
South Korea has set ambitious goals for its energy future. The nation’s commitment to the Paris Agreement includes a significant NDC target, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a substantial margin. The plan to expand renewable energy capacity to 220 GW by 2040 is a cornerstone of this strategy, signaling a clear intent to transition away from fossil fuels.
The 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, which serves as the foundation for the current analysis, had previously signaled a move towards reducing reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG). This plan aimed to decrease LNG’s share in the energy mix from 26.8% to 10.6%. However, the emergence of large-scale industrial projects, often referred to as "mega-projects," has introduced a new layer of complexity to energy planning. These projects, which could include semiconductor manufacturing facilities, data centers, or other energy-intensive industries, are projected to significantly increase national electricity demand.
Greenpeace and KBF’s Advocacy: A Public Call to Action
The release of the Alternative Scenarios for Power Sector Decarbonization report by Greenpeace East Asia and Korea Beyond Fossil Fuels is part of a broader advocacy effort to influence South Korea’s energy policy. The organizations have been vocal in their criticism of what they perceive as a potential backtrack on climate commitments.
Minju Shin, Climate and Energy Campaigner at Greenpeace East Asia, expressed strong concerns. "Despite the government’s target of expanding 220 GW of renewables by 2040, mega-project demand has flashed a red light for carbon reduction goals," Shin stated. She specifically pointed to remarks by Climate, Energy and Environment Minister Kim Sung-hwan, who reportedly suggested that gas expansion is unavoidable. Shin argued that such statements contradict both the 11th Basic Plan’s objective to reduce LNG reliance and the overarching NDC itself.
Greenpeace and KBF are urging policymakers to rigorously scrutinize the projected demand from these mega-projects, questioning whether these forecasts have been overstated. They advocate for a comprehensive assessment of alternative scenarios that prioritize the integration of renewable energy and advanced energy storage systems (ESS) before committing to further gas infrastructure.
"Expanding gas power must not be accepted as a foregone conclusion without verifying demand forecasts and assessing alternative scenarios utilizing renewables and energy storage systems (ESS)," Shin added. "The 12th Basic Plan must be thoroughly grounded in actionable pathways for renewable energy expansion and carbon neutrality to ensure the NDC targets are achieved."
Implications for South Korea’s Energy Future
The findings of the PLANIT study carry significant implications for South Korea’s long-term energy strategy and its international climate commitments. A continued heavy reliance on gas power, even as coal is phased out, risks locking the country into a high-emission pathway for decades to come. This could undermine its credibility as a global leader in climate action and potentially lead to significant penalties or missed opportunities in the burgeoning green economy.
The debate also highlights a fundamental tension between economic development, driven by industrial expansion, and environmental sustainability. Finding a balance that allows for growth while adhering to stringent climate targets requires innovative solutions and a steadfast commitment to renewable energy.
The upcoming 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand will be a critical test of South Korea’s resolve. The decisions made in this planning process will determine whether the nation stays on course for its ambitious renewable energy goals and NDC targets or risks falling short, with potentially significant environmental and economic consequences. The call from environmental groups for greater transparency, rigorous demand assessment, and a decisive shift towards renewables and storage systems is likely to resonate with a growing segment of the public concerned about climate change.
A Glimpse of Advocacy in Action
To underscore their message, Greenpeace East Asia recently projected a powerful visual statement onto the exterior wall of the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment at the Government Complex Sejong. The projection urged a reduction in gas-fired power generation and a significant expansion of renewable energy in the forthcoming 12th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand. This public demonstration serves as a clear indication of the urgency and public pressure surrounding South Korea’s energy policy decisions.
Future Outlook: Navigating the Energy Transition
As South Korea navigates this complex energy transition, the scientific modeling and advocacy from organizations like Greenpeace and KBF provide crucial data and perspectives. The challenge lies in translating these insights into concrete policy actions that align economic imperatives with environmental responsibilities. The coming months, as the 12th Basic Plan is finalized, will be pivotal in shaping the nation’s energy landscape and its contribution to global climate efforts.
Media Inquiries
For further information, media representatives can contact:
Euihyun Choi, Communications Officer, Greenpeace Korea
Email: [email protected]
Phone: +82 10-5950-0369
Sagoh
Lina Irawan
